B. Manzlak,W. Brooks

Corporate risk management and insurance companies often use the following terms to describe loss expectancies 15.

The Normal Loss Expectancy (NLE): Loss expected with all existing protection systems in service and working.

The Probable Maximum Loss (PML): Loss expected with the primary automatic protection system out of service (typically this is the automatic sprinkler system).

The Maximum Foreseeable Loss (MFL): Loss expected with automatic protection out of service and a delay in manual fire-fighting efforts (i.e., delayed or no fire department response). Loss limitiation is primarily by passive means only (i.e., fire barrier walls, etc.).

The Department of Energy often uses the following terms to describe loss expectancies:

The Maximum Credible Fire Loss (MCFL): assumes that the fire protection systems function as designed, but ignores manual fire suppression efforts.

The Maximum Possible Fire Loss (MPFL) assumes there is no automatic or manual fire suppression. The only limitations on fire growth are the availability of fuel and combustion air, and legitimate fire barriers with a rating of 2 hours or greater.

Crude estimates for these quantities are indicated in the following table. Clean up and staff salaries during program delays are included.

TABLE 12. Estimates of risk profiles.

NLE	PML	MFL	MCFL	MPFL
$1,000-50,000	$1,000-50,000	$100,000-2M	$100,000-2M	$55M 16

It should be noted that some of the above numbers appear particularly severe because the present fire protection program relies heavily on an early manual response, which is focused on limiting the fire growth to the incipient stage.