Hurricane Season begins June 1: Being prepared is vital

Start of 2006 Hurricane Season & Jefferson Lab Preparations

The official start of the North Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st. That means
Jefferson Lab will be in its standing hurricane-preparedness level from June 1 until November
30, the end of hurricane season. Reminders are going out to Hurricane Preparation Checklist
"owners" to review and update their lists, and to carry out those actions specified for
Hurricane Preparedness Level 1. For a breakdown of JLab's Hurricane Preparedness Condition
(HPC) levels, please see the attached document.

Should a storm's forecasted path suggest a threat to this area, Lab staff, subcontractors,
and users will get information about increased levels of preparation as they have in the past:
All-Staff messages from the Director, notices placed on the JLab web page, announcements at
the 8:00 Accelerator MCC Meeting, division or department phone-trees, and recordings on the
main Lab phone number (757-269-7100) and the JLab Status Line (757-232-2000).

Preparation Checklists can be viewed at:

http://www.jlab.org/intralab/emergency/hurricane/index.html

There is other information at that same location for hurricane preparations at home.

2006 Hurricane Season Outlook

The 2005 season witnessed a record 27 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven intense
hurricanes — the costliest, most destructive hurricane season ever. Long-term averages
are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The Colorado State University forecast team predictions for the 2006 hurricane season
anticipates 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of
the 17 storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those nine, five are expected to
develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds
of 111 mph or greater.

  2005
Predicted
2005
Actual
2006
Predicted
Historical
Avg.
Tropical Storms 11 27 17 9.6
Hurricanes 6 15 9 5.9
Major Hurricanes 3 7 5 2.3

SOURCES: Colorado State University, NOAA

"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane
activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming
2006-2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons that follow, will have the number of major
hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," said Colorado State Professor
William Gray.

The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making
landfall on U.S. soil:

  • An 81 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S.
    coastline in 2006 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).
  • A 64 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the
    U.S. East Coast,
    including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)
  • A 47 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the
    Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

It is important to conduct severe weather preparations as far in advance as possible and
not leave them until the last minute. You may find essential goods and services unavailable
as others — who have similarly procrastinated . rush to make their preparations too. If
you have not already done so, now is a good time to remind yourselves, co-workers, and family
members of some useful resources on tropical storm information.


http://www.jlab.org/intralab/emergency/hurricane/index.html


http://www.jsallc.org/documents/toolbox_weekfour.pdf


www.vaemergency.com/


www.fema.gov/hazards/hurricanes/


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures.shtml

"Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy."

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



content by Deborah Magaldi" content="magaldi@jlab.org

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